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Energy

Ottawa’s mixed signals create more uncertainty in energy sector

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From the Fraser Institute

By Julio Mejía and Elmira Aliakbari

The Carney government continues to send mixed signals to Canada’s energy sector. Earlier this month, less than 48 hours after Prime Minister Carney expressed conditional support for new pipelines, Steven Guilbeault, a high-profile member of Carney’s cabinet, dismissed the need for additional pipeline infrastructure, claiming that the Trans Mountain pipeline is operating at “about 40 per cent capacity” while also citing a lack of private-sector interest in building east-west pipelines due to an upcoming peak in oil demand.

But claims about the Trans Mountain pipeline from Guilbeault—former Minister of Environment and Climate Change, now Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture—are inaccurate. They also overlook a key point—despite regulatory hurdles, the energy industry maintains a strong interest in building pipelines to meet the growing global demand.

Canadians may recall the Trans Mountain Pipeline project—running between Strathcona County, Alberta and Burnaby, British Columbia—was marked by delays and overruns. After the Trudeau government purchased it from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion in 2018, costs ballooned to $34 billion. Since its opening in May 2024—five years behind schedule—the pipeline has reached 89 per cent capacity utilization (more than twice what Minister Guilbeault claimed), with projections showing it could approach 96 per cent in the near future. In short, more pipeline capacity will be needed soon.

Minister Guilbeault’s statements about peak oil demand are also off the mark. For starters, the Energy Information Administration forecasts that global oil consumption will keep growing through 2050—not just until 2028-2029 as Guilbeault claimed. Firms such as Goldman Sachs and GlobalData suggest that oil demand is set to rise well beyond 2030. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) goes even further, forecasting that global oil demand will continue growing past 2050 while stating there’s “no peak oil demand on the horizon.” Simply put, it’s shortsighted for the government to undermine infrastructure projects when multiple credible forecasts point to increased demand.

Moreover, pipelines transport more than just crude oil—they also deliver natural gas to domestic markets and coastal ports for export. Even the International Energy Agency (IEA), which Guilbeault cites as his source, projects that global demand for liquified natural gas (LNG) will continue to grow steadily through 2050. This strong LNG demand presents a significant opportunity for Canada to become a major LNG exporter and provide cleaner burning fuels. But to seize this opportunity, we need infrastructure to get our energy to tidewater.

Furthermore, Guilbeault’s claim that there’s no interest in building east-west pipelines also contradicts industry sentiment. A recent survey by KPMG, a leading audit and consulting firm, found that more than 80 per cent of Canadian energy and natural resource CEOs support additional pipelines and infrastructure on both the west and east coasts to access international markets.

Currently, most of our oil and natural gas exports go to the United States. This dependence on the U.S. for energy exports has made Canadian energy producers vulnerable to U.S policy changes (as seen with the recent threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy). Building more pipelines would reduce our reliance on a single buyer and open access to Canadian refineries and ports, enabling us to export oil and gas to other markets, including both Europe and Asia.

In fact, it’s not just the industry that calls for more energy infrastructure. Recent polls indicate that most Canadians support building additional oil and gas pipelines to all coasts, and LNG facilities, to diversify energy exports beyond the U.S. Yet, federal polices continue to stand in the way of critical energy infrastructure. For instance, Bill C-69, also known as the Impact Assessment Act, has created massive uncertainty by introducing subjective criteria including “gender” implications into the evaluation of major energy projects. Similarly, the federal government’s greenhouse gas emissions cap, which exclusively targets the oil and gas sector, deters investment by effectively requiring a reduction in production and, in turn, reducing the need for new infrastructure.

Minister Guilbeault’s inaccurate statements and the Carney government’s continued mixed signals deepen the uncertainty for investors. Rather than creating confusion with conflicting statements, the federal government should provide clarity through a competitive regulatory framework—one that allows investors, guided by market realities, to determine when and where pipelines are truly needed.

Julio Mejía

Policy Analyst

Elmira Aliakbari

Director, Natural Resource Studies, Fraser Institute

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Business

Carney’s Energy Mirage: Why the Prospects of Economic Recovery Remain Bleak

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 By Gwyn Morgan

Gwyn Morgan argues that Mark Carney, despite his polished image and rhetorical shift on energy, remains ideologically aligned with the Trudeau-era net-zero agenda that stifled Canada’s energy sector and economic growth. Morgan contends that without removing emissions caps and embracing real infrastructure investment, Canada’s recovery will remain a mirage — not a reality.

Pete Townshend’s famous lyrics, “Meet the new boss / Same as the old boss,” aptly describe Canada’s new prime minister. Touted as a fresh start after the Justin Trudeau years, Mark Carney has promised to turn Canada into a “clean and conventional energy superpower.” But despite the lovey-dovey atmosphere at Carney’s recent meeting with Canada’s premiers, Canadians should not be fooled. His sudden apparent openness to new energy pipelines masks a deeper continuity, in my opinion: Carney remains just as ideologically committed to net-zero emissions.

Carney’s carefully choreographed scrapping of the consumer carbon tax before April’s election helped reduce gasoline prices and burnished his centrist image. In fact, he simply moved Canada’s carbon taxes “upstream”, onto manufacturers and producers, where they can’t be seen by voters. Those taxes will, of course, be largely passed back onto consumers in the form of higher prices for virtually everything. Many consumers will blame “greedy” businesses rather than the real villain, even as more and more Canadian companies and projects are rendered uncompetitive, leading to further reductions in capital investment, closing of beleaguered factories and facilities, and lost jobs.

This sleight-of-hand is hardly surprising. Carney spent years abroad in a career combining finance and eco-zealotry, co-founding the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) and serving as the UN’s Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. Both roles centred on pressuring institutions to stop investing in carbon-intensive industries – foremost among them oil and natural gas. Now, he speaks vaguely of boosting energy production while pledging to maintain Trudeau’s oil and natural gas emissions cap – a contradiction that renders new pipeline capacity moot.

Canada doesn’t need a rhetorical energy superpower. It needs real growth. Our economy has just endured a lost decade of sluggish overall growth sustained mainly by a surging population, declining per-capita GDP and a doubling of the national debt. A genuine recovery requires the kind of private-sector capital investment and energy infrastructure that Trudeau suppressed. That means lifting the emissions cap, clearing regulatory bottlenecks and building pipelines that connect our resources to global markets.

We can’t afford not to do this. The oil and natural gas industry’s “extraction” activities contribute $70 billion annually to Canada’s GDP; surrounding value-added activities add tens of billions more. The industry generates $35 billion in annual royalties and supports 900,000 direct and indirect jobs. Oil and natural gas also form the backbone of Canada’s export economy, representing nearly $140 billion per year, or about 20 percent of our balance of trade.

Yet Quebec still imports oil from Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria because Ottawa won’t push for a pipeline connecting western Canada’s producing fields to Quebec and the Maritimes. Reviving the cancelled Energy East pipeline would overcome this absurdity and give Canadian crude access to European consuming markets.

Carney has hinted at supporting such a project but refuses to address the elephant in the room: without scrapping the emissions cap, there won’t be enough production growth to justify new infrastructure. So pipeline CEOs shouldn’t start ordering steel pipe or lining up construction crews just yet.

I continue to believe that Carney remains beholden to the same global green orthodoxy that inspired Trudeau’s decade of economic sabotage. While the United States shifts course on climate policy, pulling out of the Paris Accord, abandoning EV mandates and even investigating GFANZ itself, Canada is led by a man at the centre of those systems. Carney’s internationalist career and personal life – complete with multiple citizenships and a spouse known for environmental activism – underscore how far removed he is from ordinary Canadians.

Carney’s version of “clean energy” also reveals his bias. Despite the fact that 82 percent of Canada’s electricity already comes from non-greenhouse-gas-emitting sources like hydro and nuclear, Carney seems fixated on wind and solar-generated power. These options are less reliable and more expensive – though more ideologically fashionable. To climate zealots, not all zero-emission energy is created equal.

Even now, after all the damage that’s been done, Canada has the potential to resume a path to prosperity. We are blessed with vast natural resources and skilled workers. But no economy can thrive under perpetual policy uncertainty, regulatory obstruction and ideological hostility to its core industries. Energy projects worth an estimated $500 billion were blocked during the Trudeau years. That capital won’t return unless there is clarity and confidence in the government’s direction.

Some optimists argue that Carney is ultimately a political opportunist who may shift pragmatically to boost the economy. But those of us who have seen this movie before are sceptical. During my time as a CEO in the oil and natural gas sector, I witnessed Justin’s father Pierre Trudeau try to dismantle our industry under the guise of progress. Carney, despite or perhaps because of his polish, may be the most dangerous of the three.

The original, full-length version of this article was recently published in C2C Journal.

Gwyn Morgan is a retired business leader who was a director of five global corporations.

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Energy

Trump Keeps Focus On America’s Energy Production

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Blackmon

America’s energy landscape continues to shift under President Trump’s second term, and developments of just the past few days underscore a pragmatic pivot in U.S. energy policy. From Alaska’s oil fields to Illinois’ nuclear reactors, the focus is clear: energy security, economic growth, and cutting through the climate alarm-driven fog of the past administration. A pair of major developments this week paint a clear picture of some of the ways Trump administration energy policies are reinvigorating the domestic energy space without more economically ruinous federal spending.

First, the Trump administration’s move to reopen 13 million acres in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) for oil and gas leasing is a gut punch to the Biden-era eco-orthodoxy. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, called it a return to “balance” after a 2024 rule locked up half the 23-million-acre reserve.

Climate-alarm conflict groups like Earthjustice are predictably apoplectic, warning of climate doom. “By proposing to repeal these science-based regulations, the Trump administration aims to grease the skids for oil companies intent on industrializing even the most sensitive areas in the Western Arctic in pursuit of dirty oil that can have no place in our energy future,” Earthjustice Attorney Erik Grafe said in a release. “The administration should be working to develop a post-oil future for the region, not paving the way for outdated, destructive oil development.”

But native Alaskans living in the state’s Arctic North Slope region take a different view. “Today’s decision by the BLM is another important milestone in our effort to advance our Iñupiaq self-determination on our North Slope homelands,” said Nagruk Harcharek, President of Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat (VOICE)“It underscores what VOICE has always known and argued in court on behalf of our 21 member organizations: that the Biden administration’s 2023 rule affecting our NPR-A lands is deeply flawed and poses significant risks to our communities, economy, and culture. We applaud this development and look forward to collaborative engagement with the federal government and Congress about durable policies that support North Slope Iñupiat self-determination.”

Republican Alaska Representative Mike Begich agreed with VOICE, saying, “This decision is a major victory for Alaska and for every American who believes in energy independence and the rule of law,” said Congressman Begich. “The 2024 restrictions in the NPR-A were imposed with no serious consideration provided to those who work and live in the region and in clear violation of the law – hindering Alaska’s right to responsibly develop our resources.”

The required regulatory process means drilling isn’t imminent, but this signals Trump’s intent to unleash domestic fossil fuels. In a world where China and India still burn coal like it’s 1999, exploiting America’s massive oil and gas resources are a strategic necessity, not a sin.

Meanwhile, a blockbuster deal in Illinois signals an accelerating recovery in the nuclear power industry, focused on fueling AI datacenters. Constellation Energy inked a 20-year pact with Meta to supply 1,121 megawatts from the Clinton Clean Energy Center, powering Meta’s AI data centers starting in 2027. Extending Clinton’s life beyond Illinois’ expiring Zero Emission Credit program, adding 30 megawatts, and saving 1,100 jobs, this market-driven deal proves nuclear can thrive without heavy-handed mandates. It’s a model for keeping reliable, carbon-free power online while tech giants like Meta drive demand through the roof. It is probably no coincidence that this deal comes 10 days after President Trump signed 4 executive orders to jump-start the U.S. nuclear industry in a signing ceremony attended by Constellation CEO Joseph Dominguez and other industry executives.

These stories reveal a U.S. energy policy recalibrating toward pragmatism and strategic positioning. Trump’s team is betting on oil, gas, and nuclear to keep America’s economy humming while trimming the fat from bloated green programs. The NPR-A decision draws a line in the sand: energy security trumps ideology. Meanwhile, Constellation’s deal with Meta reveals a willingness to embrace clean energy; not with more subsidies, but on market terms.

The message is clear: America needs power that works, not intermittently or when the weather is right, but 24 hours every day, 365 days a year, and the Trump agenda is focused on restoring American Dominance in those forms of energy. In a world of rising demand and geopolitical chess, it’s the logical strategic imperative.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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