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Flat copper, EV glut, imploding wind power equal green crash

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Ian Madsen

Large fissures are appearing in the ‘Green Transition’ story climate crusaders tell themselves.  They are trying to foist it on a reluctant public and skeptical business world. One recent such crack is the carve-out on carbon taxes for heating oil in the politically-fickle Atlantic provinces.  Provincial premiers are trying to get the same treatment for other fossil fuel heating fuels.

Yet, politicians who still hew to the Climate Crisis orthodoxy remain unrepentant.  Montreal’s city council has announced that all new buildings of three stories or less will not be permitted to use natural gas heating. Taller buildings would face the ban later.  Several cities and states in the United States are also trying to restrict natural gas use.  Their efforts seem desperate.

A recent U.K. study concluded that heat pumps are much more expensive than employing natural gas (also true in Canada), and resistance heating is even worse.  Due to the study and public pushback, the planned U.K. heat pump mandate was cancelled – and ‘Net Zero’ postponed beyond 2035.

Extreme policy adopted by voting-block-pandering politicos notwithstanding, other constituents of the artificially-sustained Green Transition show signs of weakness.  For some, notably wind power, outright impending collapse looms.

Wind turbine companies’ share prices have slumped.  The main reason is that wind power contracts are being cancelled in many places.  A large project off the New Jersey coast is the latest example.  Component and material costs are the main culprits. They caused wind developers to raise requested electricity prices to unaffordable levels, and higher interest rates made capital costs rocket skyward. Recent revelations about the high costs of recycling wind turbine blades have soured governments and the public on this dubious ‘alternative energy’.

Electric vehicles, ‘EV’s’, are another darling of the climate lobby.  There is now a large accumulation of unsold EV’s on dealer lots, not just in North America but in China.  It takes a very large ‘rebate’ to get anyone to consider buying one – an indication of fundamental unpopularity.

It takes many minutes to recharge the battery pack at a ‘supercharge’ station; or, sometimes, hours at a regular charging station.  The former is expensive, the latter is an unacceptable time and opportunity cost for owners.  The bigger issue is a woeful lack of chargers for highway driving yet over reaching politicians are pushing a fantasy ban on gasoline  vehicles by 2035.  Forget that, it won’t be happening.

However, the best indication that the Green fever dreams of excitable politicians and disingenuous so-called Climate activists are becoming a nightmare is the price of copper.  Slow expansion of copper production and the increasing demand for it in Green Transition technologies such as EV’s, wind turbines, and solar panels and for all the grid connections and upgrades that they entail should force the copper price to soar.  Yet, it is just about where it was three years ago.

Mining companies are reluctant to buy or develop new copper deposits, or expand existing operations, with no visibility for a substantially higher copper price.  Costs have risen, too, and particularly for fuel and financing, making future positive returns look implausible.

Energy consumers, households and businesses, are rejecting the hysterical climate extremism that attempts to compel the use of uneconomic and unreliable energy forms and technologies, and the rejection of proven, affordable ones. Politicians should listen, and change.

Ian Madsen is the Senior Policy Analyst at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

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Carney’s Energy Mirage: Why the Prospects of Economic Recovery Remain Bleak

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 By Gwyn Morgan

Gwyn Morgan argues that Mark Carney, despite his polished image and rhetorical shift on energy, remains ideologically aligned with the Trudeau-era net-zero agenda that stifled Canada’s energy sector and economic growth. Morgan contends that without removing emissions caps and embracing real infrastructure investment, Canada’s recovery will remain a mirage — not a reality.

Pete Townshend’s famous lyrics, “Meet the new boss / Same as the old boss,” aptly describe Canada’s new prime minister. Touted as a fresh start after the Justin Trudeau years, Mark Carney has promised to turn Canada into a “clean and conventional energy superpower.” But despite the lovey-dovey atmosphere at Carney’s recent meeting with Canada’s premiers, Canadians should not be fooled. His sudden apparent openness to new energy pipelines masks a deeper continuity, in my opinion: Carney remains just as ideologically committed to net-zero emissions.

Carney’s carefully choreographed scrapping of the consumer carbon tax before April’s election helped reduce gasoline prices and burnished his centrist image. In fact, he simply moved Canada’s carbon taxes “upstream”, onto manufacturers and producers, where they can’t be seen by voters. Those taxes will, of course, be largely passed back onto consumers in the form of higher prices for virtually everything. Many consumers will blame “greedy” businesses rather than the real villain, even as more and more Canadian companies and projects are rendered uncompetitive, leading to further reductions in capital investment, closing of beleaguered factories and facilities, and lost jobs.

This sleight-of-hand is hardly surprising. Carney spent years abroad in a career combining finance and eco-zealotry, co-founding the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) and serving as the UN’s Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. Both roles centred on pressuring institutions to stop investing in carbon-intensive industries – foremost among them oil and natural gas. Now, he speaks vaguely of boosting energy production while pledging to maintain Trudeau’s oil and natural gas emissions cap – a contradiction that renders new pipeline capacity moot.

Canada doesn’t need a rhetorical energy superpower. It needs real growth. Our economy has just endured a lost decade of sluggish overall growth sustained mainly by a surging population, declining per-capita GDP and a doubling of the national debt. A genuine recovery requires the kind of private-sector capital investment and energy infrastructure that Trudeau suppressed. That means lifting the emissions cap, clearing regulatory bottlenecks and building pipelines that connect our resources to global markets.

We can’t afford not to do this. The oil and natural gas industry’s “extraction” activities contribute $70 billion annually to Canada’s GDP; surrounding value-added activities add tens of billions more. The industry generates $35 billion in annual royalties and supports 900,000 direct and indirect jobs. Oil and natural gas also form the backbone of Canada’s export economy, representing nearly $140 billion per year, or about 20 percent of our balance of trade.

Yet Quebec still imports oil from Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria because Ottawa won’t push for a pipeline connecting western Canada’s producing fields to Quebec and the Maritimes. Reviving the cancelled Energy East pipeline would overcome this absurdity and give Canadian crude access to European consuming markets.

Carney has hinted at supporting such a project but refuses to address the elephant in the room: without scrapping the emissions cap, there won’t be enough production growth to justify new infrastructure. So pipeline CEOs shouldn’t start ordering steel pipe or lining up construction crews just yet.

I continue to believe that Carney remains beholden to the same global green orthodoxy that inspired Trudeau’s decade of economic sabotage. While the United States shifts course on climate policy, pulling out of the Paris Accord, abandoning EV mandates and even investigating GFANZ itself, Canada is led by a man at the centre of those systems. Carney’s internationalist career and personal life – complete with multiple citizenships and a spouse known for environmental activism – underscore how far removed he is from ordinary Canadians.

Carney’s version of “clean energy” also reveals his bias. Despite the fact that 82 percent of Canada’s electricity already comes from non-greenhouse-gas-emitting sources like hydro and nuclear, Carney seems fixated on wind and solar-generated power. These options are less reliable and more expensive – though more ideologically fashionable. To climate zealots, not all zero-emission energy is created equal.

Even now, after all the damage that’s been done, Canada has the potential to resume a path to prosperity. We are blessed with vast natural resources and skilled workers. But no economy can thrive under perpetual policy uncertainty, regulatory obstruction and ideological hostility to its core industries. Energy projects worth an estimated $500 billion were blocked during the Trudeau years. That capital won’t return unless there is clarity and confidence in the government’s direction.

Some optimists argue that Carney is ultimately a political opportunist who may shift pragmatically to boost the economy. But those of us who have seen this movie before are sceptical. During my time as a CEO in the oil and natural gas sector, I witnessed Justin’s father Pierre Trudeau try to dismantle our industry under the guise of progress. Carney, despite or perhaps because of his polish, may be the most dangerous of the three.

The original, full-length version of this article was recently published in C2C Journal.

Gwyn Morgan is a retired business leader who was a director of five global corporations.

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Energy

Trump Keeps Focus On America’s Energy Production

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Blackmon

America’s energy landscape continues to shift under President Trump’s second term, and developments of just the past few days underscore a pragmatic pivot in U.S. energy policy. From Alaska’s oil fields to Illinois’ nuclear reactors, the focus is clear: energy security, economic growth, and cutting through the climate alarm-driven fog of the past administration. A pair of major developments this week paint a clear picture of some of the ways Trump administration energy policies are reinvigorating the domestic energy space without more economically ruinous federal spending.

First, the Trump administration’s move to reopen 13 million acres in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) for oil and gas leasing is a gut punch to the Biden-era eco-orthodoxy. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, called it a return to “balance” after a 2024 rule locked up half the 23-million-acre reserve.

Climate-alarm conflict groups like Earthjustice are predictably apoplectic, warning of climate doom. “By proposing to repeal these science-based regulations, the Trump administration aims to grease the skids for oil companies intent on industrializing even the most sensitive areas in the Western Arctic in pursuit of dirty oil that can have no place in our energy future,” Earthjustice Attorney Erik Grafe said in a release. “The administration should be working to develop a post-oil future for the region, not paving the way for outdated, destructive oil development.”

But native Alaskans living in the state’s Arctic North Slope region take a different view. “Today’s decision by the BLM is another important milestone in our effort to advance our Iñupiaq self-determination on our North Slope homelands,” said Nagruk Harcharek, President of Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat (VOICE)“It underscores what VOICE has always known and argued in court on behalf of our 21 member organizations: that the Biden administration’s 2023 rule affecting our NPR-A lands is deeply flawed and poses significant risks to our communities, economy, and culture. We applaud this development and look forward to collaborative engagement with the federal government and Congress about durable policies that support North Slope Iñupiat self-determination.”

Republican Alaska Representative Mike Begich agreed with VOICE, saying, “This decision is a major victory for Alaska and for every American who believes in energy independence and the rule of law,” said Congressman Begich. “The 2024 restrictions in the NPR-A were imposed with no serious consideration provided to those who work and live in the region and in clear violation of the law – hindering Alaska’s right to responsibly develop our resources.”

The required regulatory process means drilling isn’t imminent, but this signals Trump’s intent to unleash domestic fossil fuels. In a world where China and India still burn coal like it’s 1999, exploiting America’s massive oil and gas resources are a strategic necessity, not a sin.

Meanwhile, a blockbuster deal in Illinois signals an accelerating recovery in the nuclear power industry, focused on fueling AI datacenters. Constellation Energy inked a 20-year pact with Meta to supply 1,121 megawatts from the Clinton Clean Energy Center, powering Meta’s AI data centers starting in 2027. Extending Clinton’s life beyond Illinois’ expiring Zero Emission Credit program, adding 30 megawatts, and saving 1,100 jobs, this market-driven deal proves nuclear can thrive without heavy-handed mandates. It’s a model for keeping reliable, carbon-free power online while tech giants like Meta drive demand through the roof. It is probably no coincidence that this deal comes 10 days after President Trump signed 4 executive orders to jump-start the U.S. nuclear industry in a signing ceremony attended by Constellation CEO Joseph Dominguez and other industry executives.

These stories reveal a U.S. energy policy recalibrating toward pragmatism and strategic positioning. Trump’s team is betting on oil, gas, and nuclear to keep America’s economy humming while trimming the fat from bloated green programs. The NPR-A decision draws a line in the sand: energy security trumps ideology. Meanwhile, Constellation’s deal with Meta reveals a willingness to embrace clean energy; not with more subsidies, but on market terms.

The message is clear: America needs power that works, not intermittently or when the weather is right, but 24 hours every day, 365 days a year, and the Trump agenda is focused on restoring American Dominance in those forms of energy. In a world of rising demand and geopolitical chess, it’s the logical strategic imperative.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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